Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) remained in focus on Thursday after reports of an expanded iPhone launch cycle, setting up a familiar split screen for investors: a powerful company, but a stock that no longer looks cheap.
The catalyst was a Nikkei Asia report that Apple is preparing at least five new iPhone models across the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027.
The timing matters because the plan lands just as an AI-led memory shortage is raising costs across the consumer electronics supply chain.
The five-iPhone plan and why Wall Street is watching
Apple is planning one of its most ambitious iPhone cycles in years.
Nikkei Asia reported that the company wants to launch at least five new models through early 2027, while also lifting its foldable iPhone production target to about 10 million units this year, up from an earlier forecast of 7 million to 8 million.
That would put Apple directly into a foldable market already contested by Samsung and Huawei.
For bulls, the timing could be powerful. Morgan Stanley analysts have said Apple has a path to more than 250 million iPhone shipments in FY27, helped by stronger upgrade rates and the first foldable iPhone.
Their bull case values the stock at $376 if foldables and AI drive stronger demand.
The bear case is that investors may be getting ahead of the market.
Jefferies recently downgraded Apple to Underperform, warning that expectations around upcoming iPhone models and the upgrade cycle had become unrealistic.
Apple stock: Memory costs cloud the upside
The bigger problem is not whether Apple can build excitement, but whether it can protect margins while doing so.
The AI data-centre boom has tightened the supply of DRAM and NAND chips, the same memory components used in phones, tablets and laptops.
As per JPMorgan data, memory could account for about 45% of iPhone production costs by 2027.
That leaves Apple with an awkward choice. It can absorb higher component costs and pressure margins, or pass more of those costs to consumers and risk slowing upgrades.
That tension was already visible in June, when Apple raised prices on Macs, iPads and other products because of memory costs.
The investor reaction was immediate as Apple stock fell 6.12% to $275.15 on June 25 after the price-hike news.
What analysts are saying about AAPL from here
Wall Street is split between product-cycle optimism and valuation discipline.
KGI Securities downgraded Apple to Hold from Outperform with a $315 price target, signalling limited upside after the stock’s strong run.
Others remain more constructive. TD Cowen raised its Apple target to $350 from $335 and kept a Buy rating.
Maxim Group also raised its target to $350 from $310, with analyst Tom Forte saying Apple’s WWDC presentation showed “meaningful improvements” in its AI efforts and could support both services and hardware sales.